By Dr. Gyan Pathak
In the light of ongoing efforts of opposition unity in the country, a sense of urgency has developed in the top BJP leadership to strengthen the NDA across the country in general and Uttar Pradesh in particular, since the state sent largest number of BJP and NDA MPs in the Lok Sabha that helped the party to form it government at the Centre both in 2014 and 2019. BJP’s internal assessment has recently found 18 of the total of 80 Lok Sabha seats in red zone. No wonder, the Union Minister of Home Amit Shah on July 2 made a strong pitch for further strengthening NDA and consolidation of OBC voters in the state.
In 2014, BJP had won 71 seats while its alliance partner Apana Dal (Sonelal), AD(S), had won two seats making the NDA tally to 73 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats from the state. However, in 2019, even when the BJP was riding on Pulwama induced wave, it lost 14 of the seats they had won in 2014. These seats remain in the red zone in their own assessment while another four seats they had won in 2019 has now been threatened and thereby pushed into the red zone. BJP had won 62 seats in 2019 election, while its ally AD(S) won two seats making the NDA tally from the state to 64. The party’s declining fortune needs to be reversed for returning to power for the third time in 2024 is obvious.
It could not be done only on the communal polarisation of Hindu votes, since OBCs are increasingly moving towards the SP led by Akhilesh Yadav, as the Vidhan Sabha election of 2022 has clearly indicated, when it won 111 seats as against only 47 in 2017. As for Lok Sabha elections, SP won 5 seats in 2014 and had kept its tally in 2019 too. The recent development in opposition politics towards unity will certainly be additional strength of the SP and their allies.
It is in this backdrop, highlighting the NDA in Uttar Pradesh by Union Minister of Home Amit Shah has become significant. He was addressing at a function in Lucknow to mark the birth anniversary of late Kurmi (an OBC) leader Sonelal Patel, the father of the Union Minister of State for Commerce and Industries Anupriya Patel during which he said that the state got completely rid of the “divisive forces” of Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party after the BJP and Apna Dal (Sonelal) joined hands.
It must be noted that the major beneficiary of OBC politics in the state is SP, while major beneficiary of Dalit politics is Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). AD(s) has been beneficiary of OBC politics but the party has limited influence on some pockets and its vote share in 2019 was just 1.21 per cent. It is simply because of this reason BJP leadership goes on talking about SP and BSP as “divisive forces”. BSP that had won no seat in 2014 Lok Sabha election, could be able to win as many as 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 at the cost of BJP.
BJP, SP, and BSP are thus the top three political parties in contest in the state who were able to garner 49.98, 18.11, and 19.43 per cent of votes in 2019 elections, while the Congress could win only 2 seats with 6.36 per cent of vote share. In the opposition meet at Patna, BSP was not invited, but both SP leader Akhilesh Yadav and Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had participated. RLD’s vote share was 1.69 per cent and it is most likely to join the opposition camp, and less likely to join NDA.
The major concern for the BJP is its nature of votes share, that won 71 seats in 2014 with 42.63 per cent of votes, but could win only 62 seats with 48.98 per cent of votes in 2019. It revealed the Faultline of concentration of BJP’s votes that dwindled in certain constituencies costing the party as many as 14 seats they had earlier won. This Faultline has further widened and they are at the verge of loosing 4 seats the party is holding presently. It is party’s own assessment.
As for consolidation of votes in favour of BJP, it seems not possible at the moment because its ally AD(S) is almost stagnant both in terms of seats and its share of vote percentage since the Lok Sabha election 2014. SP has been calling the shots now as far as OBC politics is concerned.
As for Dalit politics, BSP could not won any seat in 2014 due to a swing of 7.82 per cent against the party, but it could get 19.77 per cent of votes. In that year there was 24.80 per cent swing of votes in favour of BJP, which increased the tally of the party from 61 to 71. However, in 2019, only with a share of 19.43 per cent of votes BSP could win as many as 10 seats. It was primarily because the swing of votes against BSP was reduced to 0.34 per cent. BJP suffered considerably because swing of votes in its favour reduced from 24.80 per cent to mere 7.35 per cent despite the Pulwama wave to ride on. In the meantime, BSP’s support base remained almost intact.
The Vidhan Sabha election 2022 result has further shaken the BJP leadership. The party could manage to win only 255 seats as against 309 seats in 2017. With winning 111 seats up against 47 in 2017, it showed its rising trend while BSP has reduced to merely 1 and Congress 2 seats. The projection based on this result suggests the BJP could win not more than 51 seats, and if the Urban local bodies’ election results are taken into consideration, the party could win maximum 43 seats.
Vidhan Sabha election 2022 shows considerable reduction in BJP’s vote share to only 41.29 per cent, though it was a swing of 1.62 per cent in favour of the party. Party lost as many as 57 seats compared to 2017. In contrast, there was 10.24 per cent swing of votes in favour of SP that resulted into increase in its vote share to 32.6 per cent and 111 seats in its bag. SP thus gained 64 more seats compared to 2017.
BSP’s vote share reduced to 12.88 per cent in 2022 from 22.23 per cent in 2017, indicating that a large section of Dalit has deserted the party. Party lost 18 seats as a result and could only one seat. Congress has also hugely suffered both in terms of seats and share of votes. Congress lost 5 seats and could win only 2 seats while its vote share reduced from 6.25 per cent to 2.33 per cent.
In this background BJP is in dire need to attract Dalits and OBCs. Policy changes and finding suitable alliance partners are the possible steps towards which the party leadership are working in right unrest, apart from harping on Uniform Civil Code, for majority Hindu vote consolidation.
SP led opposition alliance with smaller parties like RLD is well set to take on BJP and NDA. BSP has already announced to go alone in Lok Sabha Polls 2024. Before the opposition conclave in Patna on June 23, SP supremo Akhilesh Yadav had said that his party would not have alliance with bigger parties. However, he participated in the opposition unity conclave where Congress leader Rahul Gandhi was also present. It has sent chilling sensation into the BJP’s spine, since any understanding between the Congress and SP may turn over the BJP’s apple cart in Uttar Pradesh on account of non-division of anti-BJP votes, especially at a time when BSP has considerably lost its support base. (IPA Service)
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