China has set an ambitious economic growth target of approximately 5% for 2025, maintaining the same figure as the previous year, despite ongoing tensions with the United States in the form of a prolonged tariff war. This announcement comes at a time when both countries are embroiled in a cycle of escalating trade restrictions, and experts are closely watching the impact these developments will have on global economic stability.
The Chinese government’s decision to maintain its 5% growth target for 2025 is indicative of its continued focus on achieving steady economic expansion in the face of significant external challenges. The target is in line with that of 2024, as the country seeks to navigate its way through a complicated geopolitical landscape. Despite the slowdown in the global economy and intensifying trade disputes with Washington, the Chinese government is prioritising stability, especially as it prepares for its own domestic policy goals, including technological self-sufficiency and boosting domestic consumption.
In an attempt to strengthen its economic position, China has introduced retaliatory tariffs on key American imports, notably targeting agricultural products. These include 15% tariffs on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton from the U.S., alongside a 10% levy on a broader range of agricultural commodities such as sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. This is a clear response to U.S. tariffs that have impacted Chinese industries, particularly in sectors such as electronics and consumer goods. The trade dispute, which has evolved over the years, now impacts critical supply chains, particularly in sectors where the U.S. and China have intertwined economies.
In parallel with the tariff increases, China has expanded its list of American companies subject to export controls. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce recently added 15 more American firms to its export control list, including drone manufacturer Skydio. This measure is aimed at restricting Chinese firms from providing dual-use technologies—equipment that can serve both civilian and military purposes—to these companies. The move is a direct response to U.S. actions, particularly those targeting Chinese firms like Huawei and TikTok in previous years. By limiting access to advanced technology, China seeks to ensure its technological independence, especially in areas of high strategic importance, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and aerospace.
The trade war, which began under former President Donald Trump, has seen both countries impose tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of goods. Although the Biden administration initially sought to soften the stance, tensions have reignited as both nations continue to use tariffs as a bargaining chip. The announcement of a 5% growth target comes as China faces several challenges, not only from the trade war but also from domestic economic pressures such as rising debt levels, a struggling property sector, and an aging population.
While the 5% growth target may appear conservative compared to China’s previous years of double-digit expansion, analysts argue that it reflects a more sustainable growth trajectory in the current global climate. The focus is now shifting towards quality growth, with an emphasis on high-tech industries, innovation, and green development. For the Chinese government, maintaining this growth rate is essential for ensuring social stability and reinforcing the Communist Party’s control over the country.
The U.S.-China trade war has led to significant disruptions in global markets, with both sides suffering economic consequences. For instance, the U.S. has seen its farmers and manufacturers experience difficulties due to China’s retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, Chinese companies have faced hurdles in securing advanced technology from U.S. suppliers. This has led to shifts in global supply chains, as companies increasingly seek to diversify their production away from China to avoid the risks posed by further trade escalation.
In response to these challenges, China has been actively exploring alternative markets. This includes strengthening its trade ties with countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as well as making efforts to deepen its economic integration with the European Union. Furthermore, China has focused on boosting its domestic consumption, aiming to reduce its reliance on exports as a driver of growth. This approach has led to the expansion of industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, which are seen as crucial for the country’s long-term economic future.
Despite the economic headwinds, China’s leadership remains resolute in its plans to ensure economic growth through a mixture of policy tools. Measures such as infrastructure spending, financial support for key industries, and a continued push for technological advancements are central to these plans. The government’s ability to navigate through this tumultuous period will largely depend on its ability to manage both domestic challenges and international relations, particularly with the U.S.