By Nitya Chakraborty
The first short session of the 18th Lok Sabha has just ended with the third time Prime Minister Narendra Modi giving the impression once again that nothing different happened in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, he remains the same unvanquished leader of the majority party BJP like he was after the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Modi behaved in the same manner to the opposition in this short session and his reply in Lok Sabha to the debate in President’s address made it clear that he remains the same majoritarian leader and not the Prime Minister of the entire nation.
It was a positive development that the opposition got its voice back in the Lok Sabha and the LOP Rahul Gandhi was at his performing best in the debate exposing the PM’s fault lines as also the difference between a Hindu and BJP’s Hindutva. Both Rahul and Trinamool Congress’ Mahua Moitra and Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav focused on the core issues that dominated the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections and it was refreshing to note that the BJP members in the Lok Sabha, despite their usual table thumping for PM, were not at their best. An unease was there.
Now, the next session is due to start in the third week of this month. The main focus will be on the full budget for 2024-25 which the PM’s office wants to be used for helping the NDA, especially the BJP to take on the rejuvenated INDIA block. PMO and the think tanks of PM have already identified a few areas for taking corrective measures in the budget proposals taking into account the post poll review made by the BJP. From all indications, youth employment, farmers issues and extending some more facilities for women will form the core of new programmes. The BJP review has also shown that the youth of the country had not voted in favour of Narendra Modi like earlier elections and the employment crisis adversely affected the BJP’s youth vote bank.
INDIA bloc must remember that Narendra Modi is a 24×7 politician and he is now a wounded tiger. He is desperate to restore his present diminished status and he and the BJP can only do so by trouncing the opposition in the coming assembly polls. Already BJP high command has taken advanced preparations and their programme is going ahead smoothly excepting Maharashtra.PM himself is monitoring the preparations on behalf of the BJP leadership. For some reasons, Home Minister Amit Shah is keeping a low profile.
The state assembly elections are due in Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra by the end of 2024 and to Delhi and Bihar in 2025. In the first lot, on the basis of the Lok Sabha polls results, INDIA bloc is advantageously placed. Already in Maharashtra following sweeping victory in Lok Sabha polls by the MVA, the alliance followed it up with fresh wins in the legislative council polls. What is most significant about Maharashtra is that already some seat sharing understanding between the INDIA partners has taken place –96 seats each out of the total of 288 seats. Congress has shown maturity as the main leader of the national opposition by not insisting on more seats despite it securing the largest number of seats among the partners in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. This has been possible due to the perfect understanding between Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray and Rahul Gandhi. A resounding victory for MVA is now a distinct possibility in the coming state assembly polls unless there is some last minute mess up by MVA before the elections.
The situation is equally positive in Haryana and Jharkhand for the INDIA bloc. The BJP leadership in Haryana, despite the change in Chief Minister is cornered. The Congress organisation has got a big boost after its success in getting 5 seats out of ten in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Bhupender Hooda has been able to organise the disgruntled Congress workers who were thinking of leaving the party earlier.
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and the AICC secretary Priyanka Gandhi worked hard in restoring unity in the Congress ranks. The Congress Party is in a position to take on the BJP in organisational terms. Its understanding with AAP in Lok Sabha elections, can be extended to the assembly elections on the basis of talks. However, even without AAP support, the Congress is well placed now to win on its own strength.
In Jharkhand also, after the loss of three Lok Sabha seats of BJP, the INDIA bloc is on ascendency as the state assembly poll approaches. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) leader Hemant Soren has been released on bail. It is not clear whether he takes the post of Chief Minister again of the ruling INDIA bloc government but his release from prison after five months has led to massive impact among the tribals. Hemant is campaigning extensively and he has emerged as the leader for protecting the rights of tribals.
In Jharkhand, there is a good understanding between JMM, the Congress, RJD and the Left parties, especially the CPI(ML) Liberation which has active bases in many areas of the state. Hemant has good equation with Priyanka and Rahul. It is expected that seat sharing talks will start soon and an understanding will be reached. BJP will make all efforts to get back Jharkhand by dethroning the present JMM led government but INDIA bloc is equally strong now after Hemant’s release.
If the INDIA bloc can engineer the defeat of the NDA and BJP in the three state assembly elections in 2024, there will be a catalytic change in the political situation in 2025. By February that year, elections will be held in Delhi. Irrespective of any alliance with the Congress in the Delhi assembly elections, AAP should be in a position to defeat the BJP like 2020 assembly elections. Narendra Modi government can be turned into a non functioning government by the opposition if the INDIA bloc can secure wins in all these four elections.
The other state assembly poll is in Bihar by the end of 2025. Though right now, the NDA is comfortably placed after the Lok Sabha polls, the state assembly performance may turn different. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav is going from strength to strength. He has emerged as the unifier of the anti-BJP forces in the state. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s status has already been devalued. His demand for declaring Bihar as a special category state has still not got PM Modi’s clearance. Things might hot up in NDA by 2025 before the assembly polls . INDIA bloc has allowed BJP to form the government after Lok Sabha polls as the minority BJP with only 240 seats-32 less than the majority figure, could secure the support of another 52 members, mostly from NDA, especially TDP with 16 members and JD(U) with 12 members. Both these parties are not ideologically linked to BJP, they have more in common with the INDIA group. Politics is the art of possible. INDIA bloc should not wait for another five years to take on BJP in 2029.
The situation is sure to turn fluid after the three assembly polls this year. INDIA bloc has to work both at the level of mass issues and the level of Modi’s temporary allies. If the political situation turns favorable, that should be fully utilized. More INDIA bloc allows the Prime Minister Narendra Modi to continue, more the threats to democracy and constitutional norms will be bigger. No opportunity should be missed to unseat the third time PM through democratic means. INDIA bloc has to keep it clearly in mind. (IPA Service)