Trade between the European Union and the East African Community reached €7.7 billion in 2024, marking a robust surge in economic engagement. Data from the EAC Secretariat and the European Commission reveal that Kenya led this growth, accounting for 43 per cent of total EAC trade with Europe.
Kenya’s ascent to prominence has been propelled by its position as the region’s primary link to European markets. Under the Economic Partnership Agreement initiated in July 2024, it became the first EAC member to implement the pact, which offers immediate tariff- and quota-free access for its exports into the EU, while Kenya gradually opens its market. The results are distinctly visible: Kenya accounts for nearly half of all EAC–EU trade and for 45 per cent of investments within the bloc.
An analysis of trade flows underlines the shift. In 2023, Kenyan exports to Europe—including cut flowers, fruits and vegetables—totalled €1.2 billion, while EU exports of mineral and chemical products, machinery and appliances to Kenya reached €1.7 billion. This balance reflects the mutual benefits of the agreement and deepening bilateral ties. Kenya ranks as the EU’s seventh‑largest African trade partner, with total trade climbing to €3 billion in 2023, a 16 per cent rise since 2018.
Beyond Kenya, the broader EAC has also seen shifts. Collective trade grew 28.4 per cent to $8.86 billion, driven largely by the Kenya–EU EPA. Within the EAC, intra-bloc trade also grew by 13.1 per cent to $12.1 billion in 2023, representing 15 per cent of total EAC trade.
Country-specific performance underscores varying trajectories. Uganda registered a remarkable 77 per cent surge in exports to global markets, reaching $6.34 billion in 2023. Tanzania and Rwanda, while showing moderate gains, still lagged behind Kenya’s growth pattern. Burundi, South Sudan and Rwanda, classified as Least Developed Countries, continue to rely on the EU’s Everything-but-Arms scheme, which offers duty-free entry for all goods except arms.
The EPA’s emphasis on sustainability and inclusivity adds a strategic layer to the agreement. It includes clauses on environmental conservation, labour rights and gender equality—portions unprecedented in prior EU agreements with developing economies. EU officials have indicated that Kenya’s stability and regional influence underpinned its leading role in the EPA, which is intended to serve as a model for other EAC members.
Trade analysts suggest that Kenya’s rise reflects both domestic reforms and stronger supply-chain integration. Kenyan firms have adapted to the EAC’s Common External Tariff and aligned export capacities with EU demand, particularly in horticulture and floriculture. According to agricultural sector experts, Kenyan producers have expanded certification and quality compliance to meet EU standards, enabling higher-priced access to premium markets.
Nonetheless, challenges persist. Kenya continues to record a trade deficit with the EU—approximately €500 million in 2023—raising concerns about long-term sustainability. While exports of flowers, tea and vegetables are strong, reliance on imports of machinery and chemicals remains substantial. Furthermore, other EAC partners have yet to ratify the EPA, delaying full regional integration under the agreement.
Policy experts argue that widening Kenya’s success across the EAC will require infrastructure upgrades, logistical harmonisation and expanded value‑addition processes. They caution that without broader regional participation, Kenya could be left exposed to external market volatility and uneven benefits.
European trade officials maintain that the Kenya–EAC partnership is central to the EU’s Africa policy, dovetailing with commitments on democratic governance and green growth. The EU‑Kenya EPA, integrated into a broader strategic dialogue launched in June 2021, represents the most ambitious EU trade pact with a developing country to date.
Kenya’s achievement as the dominant node of East African trade with Europe reflects a blend of diplomatic foresight, institutional readiness and export agility. As the agreement matures and other EAC nations contemplate accession, the potential for a reconfigured regional economic landscape grows—but so do the complexities of harmonising economic strategies across six sovereign states.