Oil prices experienced a decline on Friday, with Brent futures decreasing by 73 cents, or 0.95%, to $75.75 per barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude falling by 73 cents, or 1%, to $71.75 per barrel. Despite this downturn, both benchmarks were poised for a weekly gain, influenced by supply disruptions in Russia and ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential peace negotiations in Ukraine.
The market has been reacting to recent events impacting supply dynamics. Ukrainian drone strikes targeted a key pumping station on a major international pipeline in southern Russia, disrupting oil supplies from Kazakhstan. This incident has heightened concerns over the stability of oil exports in the region, contributing to price volatility.
In the United States, oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.25 million barrels per day of capacity in the week ending February 21, increasing available refining capacity by 258,000 bpd. Offline capacity is projected to fall to 893,000 bpd in the week ending February 28. These adjustments in refining operations reflect the industry’s response to current supply and demand conditions.
Global oil demand growth is projected to average 1.1 million bpd in 2025, up from 870,000 bpd in 2024. This increase is primarily driven by emerging Asian economies, with China remaining a significant contributor due to its petrochemical sector. However, the pace of China’s expansion is expected to slow, and OECD demand is forecast to return to a structural decline following a modest increase last year.
World oil supply experienced a decline of 950,000 bpd to 102.7 million bpd in January, influenced by seasonally colder weather affecting North American production, as well as output decreases in Nigeria and Libya. Despite this reduction, supply remains 1.9 million bpd higher than a year ago, with gains led by the Americas. Projections indicate that global oil supply will increase by 1.6 million bpd to 104.5 million bpd in 2025, assuming OPEC+ voluntary cuts remain in place.
The Energy Information Administration forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $74 per barrel in 2025, before declining to $66 per barrel in 2026. This outlook considers factors such as increasing production and relatively weak global oil demand growth, leading to a rise in global oil inventories and exerting downward pressure on prices.
Market participants are closely monitoring geopolitical developments, particularly the potential for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The outcome of these discussions could significantly impact global oil supply and demand dynamics, influencing price trajectories in the near term.