Oil markets swung sharply following the US Air Force’s striking of Iran’s Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear facilities on 21 June, triggering a fresh wave of geopolitical risk. Brent crude futures jumped over 11 per cent earlier this week after Israeli attacks, and traders are now preparing for further price volatility once global trading resumes.
President Trump described the operation as a “spectacular military success” and warned that more targets await if Iran does not seek peace. The US employed six B‑2 bombers laden with GBU‑57 “bunker‑buster” bombs—ordnance only capable of penetrating Fordow‘s deep underground vaults. Natanz and Esfahan were also hit, reportedly using Tomahawks from submarines.
Market analysts warn that disruption to Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day export capacity, plus the threat of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, would lift risk premiums sharply. Oxford Economics estimates oil could reach $130 a barrel if Iran decides to close the Strait, sending inflation soaring.
Investors are preparing for turbulence in equities and a rush towards safe-haven assets like the US dollar and gold. Potomac River Capital’s CIO, Mark Spindel, warned of markets being “initially alarmed” with heightened volatility continuing until the extent of the damage is confirmed.
Global markets have seen mixed signals: while crude prices surged up to 18 per cent since Israel’s June 13 raids, equities such as the S&P 500 have remained relatively steady. Predicting a deeper sell-off may depend on whether Iran follows through with threats — including disrupting the Strait, leveraging regional proxies, or escalating cyber campaigns.
Iran’s official response has been defiant rather than conciliatory. Tehran’s Atomic Energy Organisation assures no radiation has been released, and lawmakers claim the damage is superficial and repairable. Iran’s foreign ministry has labelled the strikes “outrageous” and cautioned that the consequences will be “everlasting”.
Global leaders have voiced alarm. New Zealand’s foreign minister urged all parties to “de-escalate and return to diplomacy”, while Australia and Mexico emphasised restraint and dialogue. Venezuela and Cuba condemned the strikes as violations of international law, calling for immediate halt to military action.
Oil market specialist Saul Kavonic warns Brent could move towards $100 a barrel “depending on Iran’s retaliation”. While Saudi output increases may buffer short-term shortages, traders recognise that any direct counterstrike on Gulf tanker routes or infrastructure would compound risk.
The destruction of key nuclear enrichment sites may set back Iran’s nuclear programme temporarily. Yet experts caution that the regime’s scientific expertise cannot be fully neutralised and the damage might harden Tehran’s resolve to pursue a bomb. This may also hinder diplomatic engagement, as Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty and cease cooperation with the IAEA.
In financial hubs and oil centres from London to Shanghai, traders are reviewing risk models, stress-testing portfolios and hedging energy exposure. Asian markets, heavily reliant on Gulf crude, could face inflationary pressure if shipping routes are disrupted.
A key question now is whether the United States and its allies will pursue further strikes or shift to diplomatic pressure. Trump’s administration insists that Iran now has a binary choice: embrace peace or face further “precision” strikes. Critics warn that without congressional authorisation, deeper military involvement risks entangling the US in a long-term Middle East conflict.