OPEC+ plans to finalise a 2.2 million-barrel-per-day supply restoration by September and is deliberating halting further production increases from October onwards, delegates have indicated.
Source participants say the cartel has scheduled a final monthly increment of approximately 550,000 bpd in September, completing the planned unwinding of cuts. Following that, discussions have begun around suspending additional increases—especially the roughly 1.66 million bpd tied to later phases of the rollback—potentially pausing as early as October.
The move reflects a strategic pivot. Since April, OPEC+ has shifted from restrictive supply policies to a more assertive stance aimed at reclaiming global market share. The August hike of 548,000 bpd and a final 550,000‑bpd boost in September are designed to restore all previously idled capacity by month‑end, a process now ahead of the original timetable. Goldman Sachs estimates that these eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria—will ramp up output by 1.67 million bpd between March and September, reaching around 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia contributing over 60%.
Market reaction has been cautious. Headlines concerning the October pause briefly skewed crude futures, though prices largely returned to pre-announcement levels. Brent remains in the high‑$60s per barrel, with WTI trading near $66–$69.7.
The internal calculus of OPEC+ appears guided by several considerations. The group has seized on peak northern‑hemisphere summer demand and is leveraging low Saudi production costs and substantial spare capacity to apply pressure on higher‑cost U. S. shale competitors. Yet analysts warn that the combination of revived OPEC+ output and growing non‑OPEC+ supply may risk oversupply by year‑end, potentially driving Brent below $60/barrel.
Goldman Sachs, maintaining a $59/barrel forecast for Q4 2025 and $56 in 2026, cites resilient demand—particularly from China—as supportive. However, it highlights an elevated downside risk if OPEC+ pursues further rollbacks, notably in the 1.65 million bpd layer of cuts extending beyond 2026.
Discussions on a production pause are reportedly at an early stage, with no definitive decision taken. A key videoconference is scheduled for 3 August, during which the group may formalise its approach to both the final 550,000 bpd increment and the decision on a pause.
Analysts are watching closely. Some view the pause plan as a signal that OPEC+ is ready to pause once core supply restoration is achieved. Daan Struyven, co‑head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, commented that “our base case remains that they will be done raising production once the 2.2 million barrel‑a‑day round of cuts is unwound”.
The unfolding strategy presents a delicate balancing act for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom’s influence allows it to drive accelerated production increases that challenge U. S. shale, while its capacity buffer provides strategic flexibility. However, maintaining this approach hinges on global demand dynamics and its ability to avoid triggering a price slump that undermines revenue balances.
With the rapid restoration of output nearly complete, the group now faces a critical juncture. The pause in October would mark a shift from growth-driven supply strategies to a more cautious, equilibrium-focused posture—preserving market share without destabilising prices.